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Monday, November 29, 2010

Wikileaks and other entertainment

The first batch of the Wikileaks documents are out, and they are good timepass. Refer below link for the kind words US diplomats have on world leaders. ROFL.

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-what-america-thinks-of-world-leaders/20101129.htm

Then there is the whole unflattering bit about how most of the world sees Pakistan as a worst nightmare (due to its potentially uncontrolled nuclear arsenal). Super fun to see Pakistan getting trashed thoroughly and publicly.

Was also fun to note the Aussies suffer like dogs at the Gabba in the Ashes. England scored 517 for one!! Unbelievable score. Super amused - am grinning, even!

Friday, November 26, 2010

Deterrence

Its the season of scams in our glorious nation. 2G, Adarsh, Yeddy, CWG...each one bigger than the last. And more blatant - the guilty are not scared anymore. I suppose they never have been, in this nation where the laws are laughably weak, and immunity over and above these weak laws can be bought by the rich and powerful.

I am reminded of Haryana's DGP Rathore, who went on to head the state's police after being implicated in her molestation and suicide. After tonnes and tonnes of media action the courts finally reversed their acquittal and convicted him 20 years after the incident - for 6 months. Maximum punishment is any way 2 years. Even as prosecution attempts to give him the maximum term, he has been given bail and is out now.

If this is the punishment a person gets for one of the most high profile cases seen recently, what kind of deterrence does it provide to others? Yes, Indians are hugely huuugely corrupt, but thats an outcome (of our system and processes), not an inherent evil that cant be solved.

Just yesterday night I came across this case of an IAS officer (a director in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs) being arrested for selling state secrets. The poor investigative agencies recorded his calls, followed him and even videotapes his clandestine meetings for 6 months. The evidence against him would be vast I presume. The whole thing didn't get too much media coverage though. Any guesses if he is finally going to get convicted? Will he spend more than 6 months in jail? And will he be barred from his IAS 'duties' later? Check out my previous entry on Justice Dinakaran.

And not just powerful bureaucrats, ministers or businessmen, even small time goondas can act with impunity if the victim is just a regular person without connections. Check this out: Yesterday in Lucknow 3 people accused of rape went ahead and raped the victim again to scare her and shut her up. Link here.

What is the solution? We can do many things, but one of the most elegant ways of deterring people is the DEATH PENALTY. Be it corrupt bureaucrats, scheming mantris or impudent rapists, making examples of their brethren would put some fear in their hearts. This writer is baying for blood.

EDIT: 12 Dec 2010, girl gangraped in Delhi because she chose to fight back at eve teasers. They abducted her in their car and gangraped her to 'teach her a lesson'. They were caught immediately due to a police manhunt, but what is the worst they will go through? 14 years of punishment IF convicted AFTER 5-6 years of random court work AND they might get a reduction in sentence after 7 years due to 'good behavior'. What the f*ck is wrong with this country? Humane punishment and human rights can be talked about in countries with humans, not animals. We are still a primitive society where deterrence ought to be strong. Link here.

Monday, November 22, 2010

On Free Markets

Our government doesnt interfere where it should, and meddles in affairs such as these. For the life of me, I cant fathom why the civil aviation ministry should care about rising air ticket prices.

Sanity returns to tarmac as low-cost airlines reduce fares

For the uninitiated, and those too lazy to read the above link, ticket prices for sectors such as Mum-Del zoomed in the recent past. If you bought tickets for 3-4 days away, you would be fine, but within 1-2 days, prices really spiked - particularly noticeably on low cost carriers. Eg: Rs. 20-30,000 for a one way Mum-Del fare. So on for some other sectors as well. Mainly happened due to supply issues (esp. at Mumbai airport) and high demand due to seasonality.

The aviation ministry got really pissed off about the high fares, and gave earfuls to all airlines (now the situation is supposedly back in control - but read on to see why it is not). My question is: why should the civil aviation ministry care? Aviation is a private sector industry, not subsidized by the government in any way, and which caters to the elite. So why should the ministry care?

Now some may want to dispute the elite bit - using two broad arguments:

1. Air travel is increasingly a middle class affair, and should be encouraged
More than 70% * of our country lies below the middle class benchmark. I can somewhat understand the government being bothered about affordability of rail travel, but air travel? Are there no other means available to Mr.-Verma-clothes-shop-merchant if he is only getting Saturday's ticket to Delhi for 22,000 on Friday? Cant he take a train o

2. Air travel is also important for businesses etc
I have this feeling...call it hunch if you will...that businesses wont be impacted too much by fare spikes which are last-minute AND on weekends AND for low cost carriers. I mean, this is the segment which gave birth to the idea of an expensive business class with 3x-5x fares!

As it so turns out, there appears to be some indication of shady collusive behavior by airlines too, apart from supply-demand mismatches. And by god if that is true then it should be stopped by the regulators and ministers. But thats not the line I see the minister take - its just the same old "consumer-friendly" posturing... "We will not let them increase fares likes that" etc

For once I say, let the free market decide! The current spiky system was good - in the absence of sufficient supply, those who REALLY needed to fly could still get seats at a premium till the very end while others would drop out of their plans / take a train. Now, everyone sees low fares thanks to socialism, but those in urgent need at the last minute will never find those seats! Sigh. and interferes where it should not!

* Figures are for representational purpose only; quite unverified

And they want me to be optimistic about my country

How can a tainted man be CVC, says SC
(read it here, else the text is reproduced below my 'commentary' / ranting)

Heights of shamelessness eh - the government appointing a tainted man as the CVC (Chief Vigilance Commissioner). This the guy who the CBI will report to. The guy whose scathing comments in the past have brought governments down on their knees. Now this institution is also forever compromised. Wonder if they will create a protocol as to how his own corruption case should be treated by the CBI if it gets that far!

Ah if only one lets the imagination run wild. The muzzling of the CBI would be complete. Perhaps they could even dismantle it altogether. Etc etc.

The optimists will point out that the courts are doing something about it. It gives me little comfort. What I am scared about is the fact that corruption is now becoming Mainstream *. Acceptable. Expected pretty much from everyone. Even Respectable? Earlier a minister caught in a scam would resign. Now there is no shame, just defiance. Exhibit A Raja. (now thats a good pun, dont you deny me!)

* Rumor has it that Indiabulls is actually a front company for the Nehru-Gandhi family's ill-gotten assets. That is still believable - those folk have been around for generations - but how about this? Some chitku** politico called Sudhanshu Mittal has apparently poured some Rs.8000 Crores (partly by looting the CWG) into his front company IREO. Read more here (its been all over the news lately but then you probably missed it between all the other big scams).

** Well, not anymore I guess...Respect!

How can a tainted man be CVC, says SC

The government placed the file relating to the appointment of P J Thomas as the Chief Vigilance Commissioner in the Supreme Court, which questioned as to how he would function in the post in view of a pending criminal case against him.

"Without looking into the file, we are concerned that if a person is an accused in a criminal case how will he function as CVC," a bench headed by Chief Justice S H Kapadia [ Images ] observed after Attorney General G E Vahanvati placed the file in a sealed cover.

The bench said it will go through the file and posted the matter after two weeks. "We will sit together and go through the file," the bench also comprising Justices K S Radhakrishnan and Swatanter Kumar said. The name of Thomas figures in the chargesheet filed in a palmoleine export case.

After the file was placed before it, the apex court bench said it would like to know whether the eligibility criteria of impeccable integrity has been met. The bench told Attorney General G E Vahanvati that the issue as to how Thomas will function as CVC when his name is there in a chargesheet will crop up at every stage. The AG sought to clarify that there was no involvement of Thomas in palmoleine export case and the sanction to prosecute him had not been processed.

The bench, however, said, "Let us proceed on assumption that at every stage there will be allegations that you should not process a file as CVC as you are accused in a criminal case. How will you function as CVC? "In every case the CBI has to report to him," the bench pointed out. "Under the service jurisprudence, a person cannot even be considered for promotions when a chargesheet is pending against him," said the bench.

"At this stage as a chargesheet is pending against him since 2002, he is not even considered to be promoted. We are only suggesting whether he will be able to function as CVC. He himself will be an embarrassment," it said. "Since this matter is very important, we will structure our order on this basis," it said.

The bench clarified that it was not on the merits of the case but it only wanted to know if the whole procedure including the criteria of impeccable integrity was followed in the appointment of Thomas as CVC. Maintaining that whole process was followed, the Attorney General told the court that if such allegations are taken into consideration, every judicial appointment may come under scrutiny.

The bench said the palmoleine case was handled by the state wing of the CVC and Thomas is heading the central organisation. The AG said J M Lyngdoh, who filed the petition, had himself prepared Thomas' ACR stating that his integrity was beyond doubt and yet he filed the petition.

Refuting allegations in a petition filed by civil societies - Centre for Public Interest Litigation (CPIL) and Common Cause - questioning Thomas' appointment as CVC, Vahanvati had said the statements made in the petition were not correct.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

The Kingdom of the blind

My attention was today drawn to this amusing article about the vatican's pov on contraceptives: Condoms sometimes permissible to stop AIDS: Pope
The subject of the vatican's pea-headed resistance to contraceptive usage is of course not new. I am reminded of the Daily Mash article run in 2008 when the pope said something to the effect: "Global warming is not a problem, gay communities are". Enjoy the gross satire.

But reading the latest news piece just makes me think: aint some pople* so so blind? I mean, my current thoughts are that devotion and belief in god in a person/family/society reduces with increasing prosperity and well being. Its majorly those in strife or some form of occasional / recurring trouble that turn to god and vest their hopes in a higher being. The ones doing well just dont care.

And that is where the pope and his gang of primitive beings come in. Growing up in a modern developed society (the West), there are still these sects of people who remain inveterately and unbelievably Blind.

Thats it. Thats the end of the blog. Really. Nothing more coming. I dont feel like writing an essay on theism and atheism. All I will do is make one twittoral (and vague?) statement:

Belief in god partly stems from the human mind's wired-in sense of establishing causality.

(* I swear the pun showed itself through a typo and I couldnt resist)

Friday, November 12, 2010

"The new middle class will rise from the slums"

Saw this nice post on rediff today - copying it here. (Yes, it appears as if ahfresh is becoming one of those kinds of blogs...but this is just a phase)

We need to change the way we think of slums and small towns - this is where the new middle class is being created, writes Sanjeev Sanyal.

At the heart of India's economic and cultural resurgence over the last two decades is an urban middle class that has had the confidence to take on the world.

This is not unique to India - from 19th century Britain to modern China, the self-reinforcing expansion of the middle class has been a key driver of growth. India has barely embarked on this journey.

However, the future is not an extrapolation of today's urban middle class but the creation of a brand-new social group with its own attitudes, affiliations and dynamics.

Image: Laxmi packs lime paste tubes outside her house in a slum area in Mumbai.

Think about the shop assistant at the new mall, the call-centre worker pestering you with phone calls about various insurance schemes or even the newly minted sports hero standing on the medals podium at the recent Commonwealth Games.

These are not the children of yesterday's middle class. Understanding this new group is key to understanding India's future.

Image: Call centre executives

A history of the middle class

A proto-middle class existed in India prior to the British period, consisting of petty Mughal officials, shopkeepers, master craftsmen, priests and scribes. However, they were not a middle class in the modern sense.

They would not quite have imbibed the very middle-class value that one can use education and hard-work to better one's position.

There is a difference between respect for learning and seeing it as an agent for change.

From the middle of the 19th century, the mindset began to shift as the ideas of the Industrial Revolution began to seep into the major cities of British India.

Social values were transformed by the efforts of reformers like Ram Mohan Roy and Ishwar Chandra Vidyasagar.

At the same time, the growing use of the English language provided access to technological, political and cultural innovations of the West.

Thus, the Indian middle class was born. By the early 20th century, it was influential enough to provide many of the key leaders of India's freedom movement. With Independence, the upper echelons of the existing middle class became the new elite.

Others gained from the expansion of public sector jobs in the 50s and early 60s. Some new blood may have been sucked in, but much of this growth was from the demographic growth of the existing middle class.

Remember that job aspirants of the 50s would have been born in the 30s when middle-class women commonly had three or more children. In other words, the public sector did not cause much vertical social mobility.

Its main impact was horizontal by re-allocating its employees to jobs that were away from their home provinces. Housing colonies had to be built to house IIT professors, SAIL engineers and so on.

The private sector too mimicked this general scheme.

In turn, it created a whole generation of middle-class children who grew up together in housing colonies and with a shared experience - Chitrahaar on Doordarshan, the Fiat or scooter that was replaced by the Maruti 800, and the unending sequence of exams. From the early 90s, they began to inter-marry.

Image: Maruti 800 replaced scooters

For the first time, there was a truly pan-Indian middle class.

Till now, the Indian middle class had been the sum of the Tamil middle class, Bengali middle class, Punjabi middle class and so on.

However, by the 90s, we had a social group whose members had more in common with each other than with those of their caste or province of origin.

When India liberalised its economy in the 90s, it was this group that benefited the most from the boom in white-collar jobs. Some of the members of the group even set up businesses and prospered.

Still, the middle class continued to be dominated by those whose parents and grandparents would have been recognisably middle class. This is now changing.

Image: A policeman teaches children from slums

Yesterday's middle class

The Indian middle class is much smaller than casual media reports suggest.

My calculations suggest that, adjusted for purchasing power, this group is currently around 60-70 million by most international standards (far lass than the 300 million that is quoted in corporate boardrooms).

It is reasonable to expect, however, that it will grow very fast with the current trajectory of economic growth - perhaps by four times in the next 20 years. But, where will they all come from?

Image: People go to work in a Mumbai local train

Note that the existing middle class will not provide this expanded group with an anchor population.

Their numbers are being depleted by prosperity (many have graduated to being upper class) and emigration (which middle-class family doesn't have someone abroad?). Even more importantly, there has been a very sharp decline in birth rates.

By the 80s, the average middle-class family had two kids. My guesstimate is that, today the average middle-class woman produces around 1.2 children.

This is half the level needed to keep a population stable. In other words, when the Indian middle class hits 250-300 million in 2030, barely a 10th of it will be drawn from the pre-existing pool. What does this mean?

Implications

The first implication is that we are entering an era of unprecedented upward mobility. We can see this in all arenas.

For instance, it was common for officers in the armed forces to be drawn from distinguished families, often with a military past.

Now we are witnessing large-scale intake from more modest backgrounds. The same can be said of the civil service.

Similarly, the average entrant to an IIT is no longer from institutions like St Xavier's and St Columba's only, but from even a coaching centre in Kota.

Second, we need to recognise that this process will be linked strongly to the wider process of urbanisation.

The parents of tomorrow's middle class work in our cities today as chauffeurs, janitors and shop assistants.

Like the parents of several medal-winners at the Delhi Commonwealth Games, they are systematically investing in their children's future. This is why they endure the indignity of a life in the slums.

As I have argued in my earlier Business Standard columns, this has important implications for urban policy.

We need to change the way we think of slums, small towns and public housing - this is where the new middle class is being created.

Third, the new entrants will bring with them different cultural attitudes. This has pros and cons. What may appear energetic in some situations may appear brash in others.

Most importantly, from a political perspective, this group will not have the old links of patronage that connected the elite with the old middle-class.

The recent Adarsh real-estate scam in Mumbai is a graphic example of this incestuous relationship. It is possible that the new entrants could begin to ask uncomfortable questions about corruption and nepotism.

Alternatively, it could take an approach that pays scant regard to the rules, further eroding the institutions of governance. Whatever it is, we can no longer ignore the new middle-India.

Image: A child working on his XO laptop

The writer is president, Sustainable Planet Institute and author of 'The Indian Renaissance: India's Rise After a Thousand Years of Decline'.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

"The Karmic Lie"

From this blog comes a great post:

Will Wilkinson points to research that confirms my otherwise weakly substantiated biases and so naturally I am inclined to cite it.

Karma is not an exclusively Hindu idea. It combines the universal human desire that moral accounts should be balanced with a belief that, somehow or other, they will be balanced. In 1932, the great developmental psychologist Jean Piaget found that by the age of 6, children begin to believe that bad things that happen to them are punishments for bad things they have done.

My take is simple: Karma is bullshit – the greatest lie ever told. In truth, the arc of the moral universe is long but it bends towards death and destruction. The universe is either utterly indifferent to your suffering or it actively seeks to destroy you and repurpose your molecules for other uses. In no way, shape or form is it your friend. In no way, shape or form is it balanced or just. If there is evil in the world then it is nature. If there is a God then he is a demon. If there is fate then ours is doom.

This story only has one ending and it ends with the extinction of all life. Good will not ultimately be rewarded. Evil will not ultimately be punished. The story will simply end. It is not just. It is not fair. It is not OK.

The only remedy open to us is to fight daily for our survival and our values. To live in open defiance of the physical laws that will eventually extinguish us. To suck every ounce of happiness from the world before it is done. To eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow the universe will grow cold and all life will die.

And, to along the way, ease the suffering of those we can. Suffering is not a lesson or a just dessert. It is an evolved mechanism that serves not our purposes but the purposes of natural selection. Poverty is not the punishment for ills but where the evil of nature has not yet been beaten into temporary submission. It is an uncaring universe crushing our brethren underfoot.

This will not end well, because nothing ends well. In the end, the universe, like the house, always wins. Yet, we do not have to tolerate agony and pain all the way up until our inevitable demise.

We live. We love. We laugh in defiance of that inevitability. If we have our heads on straight we’ll do it right up until the cold, bitter, utterly unjust and utterly unavoidable end. We are mortals – those who die. That fact should infuse our every value and animate our every action.

When my loved ones take ill they sometimes ask me –with hope in their eyes – “Am I going to die?” Yes, I answer, I cannot change that. But not today.

Not today.