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Saturday, May 23, 2020

Pitching for a better pitch map lexicon

Have you heard of the concept that it is words that give shape to thoughts? Without language, it's not just our communication that grinds to a near halt, it's also our very thought process. Stunning but true. Sure you could get by without language to process a few concrete 'things' around you, like trees or dogs. But any moment you want to get to a higher plane of consciousness and develop abstract concepts, you need a vocabulary. And don't get fooled into thinking that abstract is the same as 'theoretical / less practical for day to day life". Even basic concepts like 'money' and 'safety' and 'health'  are abstract, and therefore nearly impossible to process and build off of, without the help of this elegant concept of 'words' that permanently label all our abstract entities and make it easy for us to use and reuse said entities in a jiffy. And it's not just for abstract concepts, turns out we need word labels even for feelings, else we can't really understand our own feelings and turn them around in our heads! Sorry if all that's a tad mind bending. The books "Thinking Fast Thinking Slow" and "Sapiens" have much more on this topic.

Moving on from the super abstract preamble, and on to the (fun) topic of the day: cricket! If you are a cricket fan, you would know how important the concepts of 'line' and 'length' are for bowlers. Length defines how close or far away on the pitch did the bowler place the ball, in relation to the batsman (short ball = it will bounce up near batsman's waist or higher; full ball = it will bounce near his toes). Line defines whether the bowler placed the ball close to the stumps (and thus batsman's body) or farther away. The pitch map below illustrates length.

What is the meant by back of length bowling in cricket? - Quora

Every single trick a bowler has (swing, seam, spin, bounce)...it all boils down to where he places the ball, line and length wise. And yet we have such rudimentary language to describe line and length. As you can see in the pitch map, length has just 4 very broad buckets - short, good length, full, and yorker (see example pitch map below). Of which really 'Good' is the main length you are aiming for most often (let's keep aside the confusion that a term like 'good' can introduce). Commentators and coaches end up using vague language like 'just short of good length' as a way of describing certain bowling strategies. Line has it even worse. If you have bowled right on the stumps (the blue vertical bar above), then that's easy to describe as 'on the stumps'. Else you are left saying things like "Philander just sent down a great ball in the corridor outside the stumps, around the area of the virtual 5th stump". What the!

Given my preamble about the importance of words and lexicon, you can probably see where this is going. So my suggestion is simple: let's introduce a more scientific and descriptive notation system for lines and lengths. As you can see from the pitch map, even though the cricket pitch is fairly wide, bowlers place their deliveries in a pretty narrow band. So I suggest we label out the corridors alphabetically. See below. L is Left stump; M is Middle stump; R is Right stump. On the offside corridor, you start with A and keep going outwards. And on the legside corridor, you start with X and keep going (you can use AA after Z, but few bowlers ever pitch that wide out).


Next we solve for length. First we start a measurement clearly from the crease. Then we have a simple numerical notation: box 1 is the one closest to the crease, box 2 after that and so soon. I am suggesting 7 boxes to go up to the half-way mark, so you can get a lot more descriptive than 'full' / 'good' / 'short of good length' (whatever the hell that is) / and 'short'. But really, it could be any number of boxes so long as it's standardized.


And as soon you place the two together, you are able to describe very specific set pitch placement points ("if you want to aim an uncomfortable ball into the ribcage, box B3 is where you are aiming for", instead of a vague "pitch it on a good length somewhat outside the stumps").


I think the benefits are endless. Some use cases:

1. This lexicon can make life easier for the likes of bowlers like Ishant Sharma. A difficult to follow instruction like "you are a hit-the-deck bowler which is great, but you sometimes need to slip in wicket taking deliveries ie pitch fuller without going too full" would become a much easier "you are usually in zone 5; try slipping in some zone 4s occasionally".

2. Young bowlers can also become much more targeted in their training programs ("I am going to keep aiming for L3-A3-B3 as my sweet spot").

3. Pitching strategies can become more sophisticated depending on conditions ("this is a bouncy pitch; you all need to move half a zone up to achieve same level of bounce. Ishant - try first half of zone 3 instead of zone 4"). I am sure this happens today but now we are getting more descriptive and tangible.

4. Measurement. As Peter Drucker said, If you can't measure it, you can't improve it. Coaches and bowlers everywhere can start measuring their lines and lengths in a consistent manner and thus start becoming better players. I could even imagine training pitches physically getting physical grid lines so that bowlers can see where they are pitching with what type of action. Out of form bowlers would know exactly what's going wrong with their pitching. The continuous improvement might become a cat and mouse game: batsmen would learn where certain bowlers like to pitch; they might change their crease position accordingly; bowlers would then adjust and so on.

You might say this isn't some great new concept, and it isn't! To go back to the idea at the start of the blog, advanced vocabulary that give shape to advanced thoughts (and correspondingly, advanced behaviors). Time we applied some advanced vocabulary to cricket's age old concepts of line and length. What do you think?

Disclaimer: I am a true armchair critic when it comes to cricket. Never played anything more than the most rudimentary tennis-ball gully cricket. And haven't been following the professional game either for several years now, so I might be outdated in some areas

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Mucking about with Capital and Capitalism

I am writing this as of Mar 31st in 2020, just as the coronavirus crisis is about to peak in NYC. Surreal how this virus has brought this great city to it's knees. I am picking up on one particular outcome of this pandemic - the rental market - and wondering why the market is structured so. So the context is that one of the short term impacts of the coronavirus lockdown has been on the ability of tenants to pay rent. See here for instance: 40% of N.Y. Tenants May Not Pay Rent This Month. What Happens Then?

The news along these lines got me wondering: when practically every business and individual in the country is affected and is going to see revenue / cash flow hits, how is it that landlords are completely protected? They sit pretty behind such ironclad contracts that tenants have to pay the rents, irrespective of how well they (the tenant) or their business is doing. And I don't mean contracts in the legal sense (where it's theoretically possible that renters could have added force majeure clauses if they had had the foresight or the negotiating power). Rather, I mean contracts in the social/cultural sense, wherein our entire model and belief system towards renting rests on the assumption that the landlord never gets any risk exposure to the tenant. Sure, if the tenant goes completely insolvent, then the rent stops and the landlord has to evict and take a hit and move on. But in all other scenarios, whether the tenant's business is roaring, or down 60%, the rent is the rent is the rent. Fixed. Why?

Please note, I don't mean to be a 'commie' or a socialist. By which I mean my question isn't a political question. It's an economics question. After all property is a form of capital, and the landlord-tenant agreement is a form of capital-labor agreement. But is our current model an optimal one, where holders of a certain type of capital take no risk and therefore creates a higher barrier on the true engines of economic growth (individuals / businesses) as they look to create value? By optimal above, I mean optimizing for hard metrics like growth and GDP, I am not even talking about 'fluffy' things like equality or distribution of wealth. Put another way, would we have been creating more jobs or companies had capital-driven fixed costs like rent been revenue-linked?

For a typical business, rent cost might 3-4% of total costs, if that. So maybe moving to a revenue-linked rent model may not move the needle. But for retail businesses (restaurants, stores, etc), could revenue-linked-rents drive a fundamental shift in those industries towards more efficiency? I do worry that there are broader mores / expectations / incentive structures at play which may make it quite difficult for a fundamental rethink of how to secure value from property capital. To put it another way, if landlords today are used to securing returns on their assets with zero volatility (beyond the credit risk on the tenant), would they be okay introducing volatility into their cash flows? Even if such a model proves to be better from a systemic / macro-economic growth perspective (big if), what's the incentive at the micro level for the market to move in that direction? Perhaps marginally higher occupancy rates?

Just to clarify, this is a topic that I am not at all qualified to talk about, so this is more idle musing than clearly laid out or justifiable argument. I guess it's finally time for me to finally read Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the twenty first century'!

Monday, March 16, 2020

A Corona Timeline


A semi-autobiographical account stretching from January to mid-March
  • Detached disinterest. Something's up in China
  • Ah yet another East Asian flu. Deja SARS
  • Lots of Corona beer jokes. Hahaha
  • Oh China...what's with the lockdowns! Will iPhone production stop? Will Apple stock sink??
  • Travel restrictions to and from China! Washington state going crazy! Ooh exciting times
  • Meh. This too shall pass. Warm weather is coming anyway
  • But let's work from home: better be safe than sorry. Yay Netflix
  • Spousal truces over who gets the study desk, who gets to take work calls loudly vs who needs to whisper
  • Wtf just happened in Italy?!
  • Fevered reading up on articles and analysis and data and charts and graphs and projections and predictions
  • Holy moly! Markets in free fall
  • Panic selling! (Of stocks)
  • Panic buying! (Of masks)
  • No bank runs (yet) but lots of grocery runs... Sanitizers cleaned out, wipes wiped out. F*ck it we have soap anyway
  • Dang school are also closed now! So much for Netflix. Full on zoo mode at home
  • Huh some pretty fun WhatsApp and Twitter jokes. Full on tragi-comedy
  • Wade through the tons of spammy corporate emails... "You last used our product 4 years ago but we feel compelled to email you about the steps we are taking for your protection. Though we sell shoelaces". #FML
  • Binge on chocolate. It's the end of the world anyway
  • Guilt trip. Who am I kidding. The chocolate overkill is on me and me alone 
  • Guilt trip #2: doctors and families dying in China and Iran and Italy and here I am wallowing in self pity and chocolate?
  • No basketball. No F1. No tennis. Damn!
  • No distractions: pure virus. Wake up to Corona news. Sleep to Corona news
  • CAN WE STOP TALKING ABOUT CORONAVIRUS? This news overdose will kill me before the virus does
  • I am DONE reading; let's do some long overdue prep work. Why oh why didn't I get toilet paper like the others. Now even Amazon is all out of stock. Stupid stupid stupid
  • No new news for 2 hours
  • 12 hours now 
  • ... 
  • I can't stand the waiting. Bring it on Corona! Let's see this out one way or the other
  • Utter resignation. Ennui. Take me already
  • Shit it has hit the neighborhood! So much for the bravado
  • The end is nea...ah...ah...ahchoo!