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Monday, May 13, 2019

On monetary policy

Reposting my thoughts on MMT from LinkedIn, where no one seems to have noticed it. Oh the irony of then posting it here!

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Good article by the god of investing Ray Dalio. Lays out the theoretical foundation of MMT and some 'unconventional' (to current-gen economists) levers of monetary policy, minus the controversial discussion on political implications. Fairly technical but with a good intellectual payout if you stay with it, irrespective of whether you agree completely or not. My key takeaways / ideas:

1. There is a sound macroeconomic foundation to monetarily supporting individuals in the form of debt write-offs, cash handouts, universal basic income etc. Irrespective of your political lean, from macroeconomics side its difficult to argue why these levers to stimulate growth are any worse than quantitative easing (which is same concept but supporting investors / asset holders over individuals, and in fact with less efficient outcomes)

2. This has been done before! By FDR during the 1930s great depression, to great success and admiration

3. Even if inevitable (per Dalio), MMT / MP3 implementation will be messy. Of course the topic will be heavily politicized, and that may be an understatement given current polarization (at least in the US / Europe)

4. In the US, could student debt be a good place to apply MMT / MP3 when the next recession rolls around? Would achieve dual wins of stimulating growth and aiding millions of individuals, with a clean heuristic for who receives the benefits (modern equivalent of FDR's lending benefits for veterans). It's also a large lever, given student debt levels of $1.5 trillion. And perhaps a reasonable lever from fairness angle. Sure it will benefit college goers over others, but that's a skew that economies will want to encourage as they look to upskill talent pools

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